Economic Survey may lower FY23 growth numbers

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The Economic Survey that will be presented ahead of the Budget could forecast the real economic growth for fiscal 2023 to be lower than the 9.2% estimated for the current financial year, government officials said.

The survey is expected to project a strong recovery after the ongoing Covid-19 wave, but statistical growth is expected to be lower because of the waning base effect that has bumped up the current year’s GDP growth.

The survey for FY22 is likely to be tabled in Parliament on January 31, a day before the Union Budget, and may have just one volume instead of two, which has been the trend for the past six years.

It is likely to stress on continuing fiscal stimulus in FY23 and reiterate that the impact of the third wave of the pandemic may be limited to the ongoing last quarter of FY22.

“The outcome of structural reforms will be visible from next fiscal year,” a government source told ET.

The growth projection would be in line with the forecasts by the RBI, global institutions and ratings firms. Most institutions believe a consumer-led recovery and easing supply disruptions will make recovery broad-based. In October monetary policy report, the RBI projected growth to be 7.8% in FY23, while the World Bank has forecast 8.7%. International ratings firms S&P and Moody’s see growth at 7.8% and 7.9%, respectively.

The Economic Survey had last year projected 11% growth for FY22. The first advance estimates released by the government on January 7 suggested it be 9.2%, lower than the RBI’s estimate of 9.5% for the current financial year.

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