IMD senior scientist DS Pai explained that warmer sea surface temperatures lead to more moisture, favoring cyclone intensification.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported to news agency PTI on Thursday that a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify and reach the coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal as a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday evening.
Named Remal, this will be the first pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, following the Indian Ocean region’s naming conventions for cyclones.
IMD scientist Monica Sharma informed PTI that the system will evolve into a depression over the central Bay of Bengal by Friday morning, intensifying into a cyclonic storm by Saturday morning, and reaching the Bangladesh and West Bengal coastlines as a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday evening.
Key points about Cyclone Remal include:
- The cyclone is forecasted to attain wind speeds of 102 kilometers per hour by Sunday, according to the IMD.
- Very heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for the coastal districts of West Bengal, north Odisha, Mizoram, Tripura, and south Manipur for May 26-27.
- Fishermen have been advised to return to shore and avoid venturing into the Bay of Bengal until May 27.
- Scientists attribute the rapid intensification and prolonged potency of cyclonic storms to warmer sea surface temperatures, a result of the oceans absorbing excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions. The past 30 years have recorded the highest sea surface temperatures since records began in 1880.
IMD senior scientist DS Pai explained that warmer sea surface temperatures lead to more moisture, favoring cyclone intensification. Former secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, Madhavan Rajeevan, added that a sea surface temperature of 27 degrees Celsius and above is necessary for a low-pressure system to develop into a cyclone. Currently, the Bay of Bengal’s sea surface temperature is around 30 degrees Celsius, creating ideal conditions for cyclone formation.
Rajeevan also noted that the atmosphere plays a crucial role in cyclone formation, particularly in terms of vertical wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction with altitude. Large vertical wind shear can prevent a cyclone from intensifying.
Initially, this system will aid the monsoon’s progression over the Bay of Bengal. However, it is expected to detach from the monsoon circulation, drawing significant moisture and potentially causing a slight delay in the monsoon’s progress in the region, according to Pai.
