Australia is still far from catching up to the levels of migration expected before the pandemic, a new study from the Australian National University has shown.
Before Covid, net migration was projected to hit about 300,000 by 2025. But the study, led by migration hub director Alan Gamlen, found that net overseas migration may still be 82,000 people short of that number.
Gamlen used a projection of growth from net overseas migration using Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for the period 2013 to 2019, and found that 168,000 fewer people were added to the population from 2019 to 2024, relative to the long-term trend.
That was caused by 508,000 fewer people arriving during the pandemic, as well as a post-pandemic rebound of 340,000 extra people to March 2024, and a further anticipated 86,000 to come before net overseas migration returns to trend by mid-2025.
“This still wouldn’t fully offset the cumulative pandemic [net overseas migration] shortfall of 508,000,” the study said.
“In other words, this … method suggests that, by the time migration returns to ‘normal’, Australia will have accumulated a … shortfall of 82,000 [people] over five-plus years of pandemic disruption – not a surplus.”
By some methods of calculation Australia’s population has grown. For example, using June 2019 population growth as the baseline, the study found Australia’s population is now 97,000 higher than anticipated before the pandemic.
Net migration refers to the difference between those entering and leaving Australia.
The paper also examined total movements in either direction, finding that there were 15.1m migration movements in the five-and-a-half years before the pandemic and 13.9m in the same period since.
It concluded that “total migration” was down by 1.2 million, which Gamlen said was because Australia has “lockdown level departures with arrival levels that haven’t compensated for the pandemic deficit”.
“It’s people who have not left who we were expecting to leave [causing net migration growth], not because there are more people arriving or international students are overwhelming us,” he said.
“Contrary to claims of record-high migration, Australia is still far from catching up to the levels of migration that, in the pre-pandemic world, we expected to have had by now,” the study said.
In his May budget reply the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, suggested the Coalition would cut a total of 100,000 permanent migration positions for skilled migrants and family members over four years.
This promise was thrown into confusion by the subsequent pledge to also cut the net overseas migration rate from 260,000 to 160,000 a year.
In 2023 net overseas migration reached a record 550,000 people despite the Albanese government’s expectation to bring migration down from 510,000 to 375,000 a year by June 2024.
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In order to reduce net migration to a target of 260,000 a year the Albanese government has issued a ministerial direction to prioritise student visas based on a student’s country of citizenship and those considered less likely to stay in Australia after study.
The education minister, Jason Clare, has described this as a “de facto limit-setter” but warned it is having a “blunt” impact with some universities able to enrol more international students and others less.
But when Labor attempted to replace the direction with a power for the minister to cap international students, the bill was rebuffed in the Senate by the Coalition and the Greens.
On Wednesday universities seized on the national accounts figures showing that education exports fell from $13.6bn to $12.4bn in the September quarter.
Universities Australia chief executive, Luke Sheehy, said “our economy is stuck in low gear and the handbrake on international education is a big reason for that”.
“International students drove half of Australia’s economic growth last year.
“It makes no sense to put a handbrake on a $50bn industry that fuels our economy, especially when other sectors are struggling.”
Sheehy said the effect of the ministerial direction was that “outer suburban and regional unis are being hit hardest”.
