Hasina flees, Bangladesh bleeds. What awaits Delhi? Top takeaways

A man proudly climbs atop the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman – Bangabandhu, the founding father of Bangladesh and urinates on his head. While others bring down his statue with bricks and bats. Museums were ransacked and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s official residence ‘Ganabhaban’ was stormed. Protesters walked out with conquests – stolen furniture, her saree and inner garments. These were visuals from a Bangladesh that fell into the lap of anarchy after months of protests peaked to end Hasina’s 15-year rule and forced her to abruptly fly out of Dhaka. One of India’s friendly neighbours, Bangladesh shares a long history with the country and finds common ground in language, culture and cuisine with West Bengal across the border. Now its future is uncertain.

Sheikh Hasina recently visited India to attend PM Modi’s swearing-in ceremony and had acknowledged Dhaka’s good ties with Delhi when she became the Prime Minister for the fourth time in January this year after her party, the Awami League, won the general elections boycotted by much of the opposition over allegations of rigging. As the bloody crisis continues to swell, it’s pertinent to understand Delhi’s approach to the developments.

BANGLADESH NEW REGIME DOES NOT WANT CONFRONTATION WITH INDIA

What’s getting many anxious is the anticipation that the new government after Hasina might be anti-India or anti-Hindu. Even as Hasina faced allegations of widespread corruption, she could, to a large extent, control the communal elements. With her gone, the thought of an extremist regime got many worried. But Dhaka has assured that attacks on Hindus will be controlled and, as per a report today, such instances have been broadly controlled. Bangladesh is volatile, but the army is in constant touch with the Ministry of External Affairs in India. EAM Jaishankar also assured in Parliament that the Indian government is in touch with the Bangladesh Army in light of the recent developments.

BANGLADESH STILL NEEDS ECONOMIC AID AND SUPPORT FROM INDIA

Even as anti-India protests erupted in Dhaka months before and is still a dominant sentiment across the protest-engulfed country, Dhaka still needs economic aid and support from Delhi, which makes it clear that it can’t afford to have an anti-India stance at this point. Further, India has also not given shelter to Hasina to not upset the Army-backed caretaker government – a move that does not isolate Delhi from the rest of Southeast Asia and does not give advantage to China.

DELHI ON WAIT-AND-WATCH MODE

The movement that forced Hasina to step down also allegedly had the backing of Pakistan’s ISI and Jamat as claimed by experts, and what gave wind to it was the discontentment among the people over quota and employment. External forces which allegedly are at play could have their eyes on the stability around India. But India is on wait-and-watch mode and a top-level meeting on the crisis has also been chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

CENTRE IN TOUCH WITH BENGAL GOVERNMENT OVER INFILTRATION FEARS

Bengal-Bangladesh border was a matter of concern as many feared large-scale infiltration amid the communal undertones that run through Dhaka’s volatile nerves. Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has appealed for peace and requested not to communalise the crisis as she assured that the state government would work according to the instructions of the Centre. However, the closing of the Petropol border has affected daily trade. Moreover, this is not a TMC Vs BJP battle, but a pivotal development that concerns India with the potential of reshaping geopolitics surrounding the subcontinent.

Published On:

Aug 7, 2024

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