20 Fantasy Thoughts: Can Elias Pettersson recapture his elite form?

Some people called the return the Vancouver Canucks got for J.T. Miller underwhelming. It’s a fair claim, considering Miller at his best can be an elite player who can impact the game in a number of ways. Those in favour of a deal pointed out the best part of the swap may not be anything tangible at all. Addition by subtraction was supposed to improve the chemistry of the team and help transform Elias Pettersson back into the dominant player he once was.

That has yet to happen, though.

Since Miller was dealt and heading into Saturday night, Pettersson managed just one assist in four games and was held off the scoresheet entirely in his previous three contests. What’s worse? The Canucks forward had just two total shots in his past three outings and is now on pace for just 56 points in 2024-25. That’s not going to cut it from a player who notched more than 100 points a couple of years ago and is making $11.6 million a season.

That said, Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs was much better for Pettersson and he looked more like his old self. Pettersson had a beautiful assist and was buzzing all over the ice, creating opportunities for his linemates. He also had three blocked shots and was very effective in his own end. If you’re rostering Pettersson and you get that version eight out of 10 times, you’ll be very happy.

If you just looked at the five games the Canucks have played since Miller was traded in a vacuum, there would be no reason to panic where Pettersson is concerned. The problem is Pettersson’s issues go back much further than that. He wasn’t himself in the second half of last season either, managing only two goals over the final 26 games if you include the playoffs. It doesn’t even appear that Vancouver has entirely ruled out still trading Pettersson now that Miller is gone depending on how things go.

There is reason for optimism beyond Saturday night’s performance, though. When Miller was out of the lineup earlier this season, Pettersson went on a run of 15 points in 10 games, giving everyone a glimpse of what he’s capable of. That’s the Pettersson the Canucks were hoping would return when Miller was shipped out of town, but so far, he hasn’t been able to fully recapture that form. Compounding the problem is Quinn Hughes has been sidelined for the past four games, leaving the Canucks lineup and power play lacking offensive talent. However, if Pettersson is supposed to be an elite player, he needs to be driving the play and generating offence all by himself.

Pettersson’s struggles over the past calendar year bring up a lot of questions if you had factored him into your keeper plans for the foreseeable future. He should be a no-doubt keeper for years to come, but what are you getting going forward with Pettersson? Is he a 50-60-point player? Or a 90-100-point player? If you give up on him and he’s the latter, it would be a devastating mistake. That said, he’s had very few moments over the last year that you could point to that would suggest he can get back there on a regular basis.

These last 27 games plus any potential playoff contests will be critical for Pettersson’s future. Does he show you enough to make another investment in him for next season? Or are you selling low on a player who may or not return to superstar status?

It’s an unenviable position to be in from a player on your roster you should never have to worry about.

1. Canucks forward Jake DeBrusk is also trying to get back on track. DeBrusk had just one goal in 15 games before the Miller trade. Vancouver will need his scoring a lot more with Miller gone, Pettersson struggling and Hughes ailing. He’s now tallied a couple of goals over the past week and a half, but they’ve been sandwiched with some quiet games. DeBrusk scored against Dallas and Colorado recently and combined for nine shots, but also had a pair of games mixed in there with no points and no shots. Vancouver and those rostering DeBrusk, need more consistency.

2. Perhaps no one has benefited from Todd McLellan’s hiring more than Dylan Larkin. The Detroit Red Wings forward has exploded since McLellan was named head coach, scoring 24 points over the past 21 games. Larkin and Lucas Raymond are becoming a dominant pair and whoever is playing with them is a must-roster. Marco Kasper is the one taking advantage right now and keep an eye out if anyone else gets bumped up to Kasper’s spot.

3. Just when I thought Anders Lee was getting close to a drop after four pointless games, he goes out and has points in back-to-back contests and 10 shots. The New York Islanders forward is going to be a season-long hold at this rate.

4. Tough break for Utah losing Logan Cooley to an injury. He was having a breakout season and helped spark Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz when he was promoted to the top line. I think both Keller and Schmaltz will be fine, but expect their numbers to drop slightly with Cooley sidelined.

5. You could potentially say the same for Dylan Guenther, although I’m not worried. He didn’t show it in his first three games back from injury, picking up five points and 19 shots. Barrett Hayton has taken over the second-line centre duties, which is a best-case scenario for Guenther. I don’t think he’ll be as productive if Utah decides to shift Alex Kerfoot into that spot.

6. J.T. Miller has had a great start in the Big Apple, but he’s also making a big impact on a new linemate. Mika Zibanejad has eight points and 15 shots in five games since Miller joined him and Artemi Panarin on a new trio for the New York Rangers. Zibanejad was having a very underwhelming season, so this could be huge for New York if not only do they get Miller out of the deal, but a rejuvenated Zibanejad as well.

7. The Columbus Blue Jackets continue to deal with injuries as Kirill Marchenko is now sidelined. Marchenko was having a great season and helped make Dmitri Voronkov and Adam Fantilli fantasy relevant. Kent Johnson slides into his role for now, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about Voronkov or Fantilli just yet. Plus, the injury comes at a good time with the 4 Nations Face-Off break coming up. Hopefully, Marchenko won’t miss much action.

8. Ryan Hartman will sit for 10 games after driving Tim Stutzle’s face into the ice during a game last weekend. Hartman wasn’t that heavily rostered, but it’s worth pointing out the risks of holding players who are repeat offenders when it comes to suspensions. Ten games is essentially three-plus fantasy matchups and that would be a massive blow if Hartman was a more impactful player. Someone like Tom Wilson would fall into this category as another guy who plays on the edge and has had hefty suspensions in the past, except Wilson has a lot more fantasy value than Hartman.

9. Give credit to New Jersey Devils goaltender Jake Allen, who has delivered with Jacob Markstrom out with an injury. Allen has three shutouts over that stretch and has come as advertised as far as being a savvy pickup until Markstrom returns.

10. Some may devalue empty-net goals, but in fantasy hockey, a goal is a goal. Six of Alex Ovechkin’s 26 goals this season have come into an empty net, and he also holds the all-time record for most empty-net goals. Ovechkin is already incredibly valuable for his goal-scoring, but the fact that he hunts down those empty netters is an added bonus in fantasy.

11. Joseph Woll’s numbers haven’t necessarily been spectacular in Anthony Stolarz’s absence, but you have to be encouraged by him heading into the stretch run of the season. Woll has struggled to stay healthy, though he’s held up really well as the Toronto Maple Leafs have leaned on him quite a bit over the past six weeks. Now that Stolarz has returned, Woll’s starts will likely diminish some, but he’s proven he can take over the net again if needed.

12. Is Toronto forward Bobby McMann fantasy relevant now? It’s a tough call because he is scoring at a great rate but doesn’t do much else. McMann recently had goals in three straight and is on pace for 30 on the season, yet remains only 10 per cent rostered. That’s probably because the assists aren’t there and McMann is on the third line getting mediocre ice time. Given the fact he can score, I’d use him as a streamer and consider a hold if he gets a promotion to the top six.

13. It’s that time of year when trade rumours are swirling, so keep that in mind when making moves on your roster. If you’re thinking of dropping or moving off of a player, be mindful that their situation could change over the next few weeks via trade. Miller’s value looks to be way up in New York, could the same happen for someone like Dylan Cozens if the Buffalo Sabres trade him?

The two-week break for the 4 Nations tournament is also a good time to evaluate and analyze your roster to see what moves may make sense before the quickly approaching fantasy hockey trade deadlines.

14. If you’re looking for a spot starter, Edmonton Oilers backup Calvin Pickard might be your best option right now. He’s 9-1-0 in his past 10, with more than half of them being quality starts.

15. Has anyone been hotter than David Pastrnak since the New Year? The Boston Bruins forward is currently riding a 13-game point streak and has points in 16 of his past 18 contests. That also included a run of 15 goals in 16 games. He’s made Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie important fantasy pieces of the last few weeks, propping up both linemates. Pastrnak got off to a very slow start, but good players always figure it out. Kudos if you made a smart move and bought low on Pastrnak.

16. It’s been a productive week for Los Angeles Kings forward Quinton Byfield with six assists in his past four games. Even though he hasn’t quite had that breakout season everyone was hoping for, his ice time has been up around 20 minutes per game for quite some time and he’s starting to have more value. Maybe he’ll have a strong finish to the season to make up for that quiet start.

17. Eeli Tolvanen is quietly putting together a strong season for the Seattle Kraken. Tolvanen is on pace for 252 hits and 23 goals, shattering his previous career bests. The Kraken forward is only 22 per cent rostered and could be a key addition in multi-cat leagues. That blend of goals and hits is hard to find.

18. I’ve often noted that Thomas Chabot is a much better NHLer than fantasy hockey player, but lately he’s been proving me wrong. The Ottawa Senators defenceman has had a massive week, with four points, 16 shots and nine blocks. The main advantage Chabot provides you is that he plays a ton, though he never really stands out greatly in any one particular category. So, ride this wave while you can or maybe even consider thinking about selling high on Chabot.

19. There’s been lots of talk about Mikko Rantanen’s slow start with the Carolina Hurricanes, but Martin Necas isn’t having any trouble fitting in with the Colorado Avalanche. Necas has nine points in eight games with the Avs and is producing big shot volume and getting huge minutes. It’s been a massive upgrade for Necas, who is now skating alongside one of the league’s best players in Nathan MacKinnon. You’ve received incredible value from Necas this season if you took a chance on him. He got off to a great start in Carolina and just as he began to slow down a bit, he gets moved into a great situation where he can flourish.

20. I wonder if there’s ever a world where Cale Makar makes a push to be a top-five fantasy pick. His ADP was around nine this year, but when you factor in his production and the fact that he’s a defender, Makar is probably a bargain at that point. He’s on pace for 32 goals and has a chance for more than 90 points. There are obviously several forwards who can best those totals, but it’s much harder in fantasy to find offence on your blueline. Other blueliners can produce huge seasons as well, though Makar may be in a class of his own when it comes to goals. If he can regularly be a 30-goal scorer and close to a 100-point player, I think there’s an argument for Makar as a top-five pick in certain formats.